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@IlliniBaseball Big Ten Tournament Scenarios

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@IlliniBaseball Big Ten Tournament Scenarios

BIG TEN STANDINGS
Rank Team Big Ten Record Winning Pct. May 19-21 Opponent
1. Minnesota 15-5 .750 Ohio State
2. Indiana 15-6 .714 at Nebraska
3. Ohio State 13-8 .619 at Minnesota
Nebraska 13-8 .619 Indiana
5. Michigan 12-8 .600 at Illinois
6. Michigan State 12-9    .571 Maryland
7. Maryland 11-10 .524 at Michigan State
Penn State 11-10 .524 at Iowa
9. Illinois 10-11 .476 Michigan
Iowa 10-11 .476 Penn State
11. Rutgers 8-13 .381 Northwestern
12. Northwestern 5-16 .238 at Rutgers
13. Purdue 2-22 .083 Cal St. Northridge

Clinched (4)

Minnesota, Indiana, Ohio State, Nebraska

Still Alive (7 for 4 spots)

Michigan, Michigan State, Maryland, Penn State, Illinois, Iowa, Rutgers

Out (2)

Northwestern, Purdue

What Happens If...
Illinois stands in ninth place of the Big Ten standings, one game back of Penn State and Maryland for the eighth and final spot in the Big Ten tournament. With three games remaining against Michigan, here are the scenarios for the Fighting Illini to qualify for the tournament:

Illinois 3-0 vs. Michigan
If the Illini sweep Michigan, they will qualify for the tournament. Illinois would pass at least Michigan for eighth place or higher depending on other results.

Illinois 2-1 vs. Michigan
Michigan would clinch a spot in the Big Ten Tournament with one win over Illinois. Rutgers would be eliminated with one Illinois victory. There would be five teams alive (Michigan State, Maryland, Penn State, Illinois, Iowa) for three spots.

If Illinois goes 2-1 and Michigan State goes 3-0 against Maryland, Illinois would be in (ahead of Maryland on head-to-head tiebreaker). The Penn State/Iowa series winner would also qualify.

If Illinois goes 2-1 and Michigan State goes 2-1 against Maryland, Illinois would be in (ahead of Maryland on head-to-head tiebreaker). The Penn State/Iowa series winner would also qualify.

If Illinois goes 2-1 and Michigan State goes 1-2 against Maryland, Illinois would be out (behind Maryland and Michigan State). The Penn State/Iowa series winner would also qualify.

If Illinois goes 2-1 and Michigan State goes 0-3 against Maryland, Illinois would be in (ahead of Michigan State on record against common Big Ten opponents). There is a chance four-team tie at 12-12 between the Illini, Michigan State, Penn State and Iowa, which would result in Iowa and Illinois qualifying due to their 2-1 records against Maryland, the teams' only common Big Ten opponent. Penn State and Michigan State would have losing series against Maryland.

Illinois 1-2 vs. Michigan
The only way Illinois would qualify for the Big Ten Tournament after going 1-2 vs. Michigan is if Maryland and Penn State both went 0-3. That would put Illinois, Maryland and Penn State in a three-way tie for the eighth and final spot. Illinois owns the tiebreaker with series wins over both teams.

Illinois 0-3 vs. Michigan
Illinois would not qualify for the Big Ten Tournament with a 10-14 conference record. 

Note: These scenarios assume all remaining games are played. The standings are determined by winning percentage. 

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